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This study analyzes the effects of government expenditure composition on economic growth and income inequality in 91 countries from 1990 to 2023, using a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model. The findings reveal notable differences between advanced and developing economies. In advanced economies, only infrastructure investment consistently promotes growth, while education spending reduces inequality and healthcare expenditures may increase disparities over time. In developing economies, infrastructure investment has a stronger and more persistent impact on growth, but education and healthcare spending exhibit limited redistributive effects. Social transfers show mixed results, with inefficiencies sometimes leading to worsening income inequality. These results highlight the importance of context-specific fiscal policies, ensuring that spending priorities align with national development goals to achieve both economic expansion and equitable distribution.

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This study conducts nowcasting of monthly industrial activity deflators for the service and retail sales sectors using high-dimensional explanatory variables, and compares the performance of various linear and nonlinear forecasting methods. Linear approaches combine AR/ARX models with factor analysis and shrinkage estimation techniques, while nonlinear approaches include tree-based methods and neural network models. The results show that the AR + Ridge approach performs best for the service deflator, whereas the ARX + factor analysis with LASSO/Elastic Net yields the strongest performance for the retail sales deflator. In addition, incorporating a one-year lag improves forecasting accuracy for both deflators when newly released information is available. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of methodological structure and the timing of explanatory variables in nowcasting industrial activity deflators.

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We propose three criteria, including the permanent return ratio, change in permanent price ratio, and floating share ratio, to detect potential stock price manipulation. The permanent return and price ratios capture persistent price movements driven not by firms’ fundamental values but primarily by non-fundamental, including manipulative, sources. Manipulators’ preferences for information asymmetry favorable to generate manipulative price impacts are captured by the floating share ratio. We apply these criteria to the recent price manipulation-suspected cases in Korea, and find that the criteria can effectively detect the suspected stocks by sorting them into highly manipulation-susceptible groups. The results of the confusion matrix analysis confirm that our suggested criteria perform well in detecting potential price manipulation.

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This study examines the impact of rising housing prices on household consumption in Korea. Because housing prices and consumption are potentially endogenous, the analysis employs housing characteristics as instrumental variables for housing prices. The construction of a high-speed rail station could stimulate travel-related consumption and increase housing values due to improved accessibility. The result from the IV estimation indicates that a 10% increase in housing prices raises household consumption by 1.06%. The study explores heterogeneity across housing prices, income levels, and household debt status. The response of consumption gradually diminishes as housing prices or income levels increase. Furthermore, households owning very expensive houses exhibit declines in consumption. These declines may have negative effects on the local economy. These findings are expected to have important implications for real estate policies.